Dec. 03, 2020
Predict steel price in the last month of 2020
Rebar: On December 2, the average price of 20mm grade 3 rebar in major cities across the country was 4,076 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, driven by futures prices such as iron ore, coke, and hot coils, the price decline in the domestic construction steel market slowed down yesterday, and prices in some areas rebounded slightly. In the short term, on the one hand, iron ore, coke and plates in the black system are relatively strong, which will support the price of construction steel. On the other hand, although the demand for construction steel is gradually entering the off-season, North Material is gradually moving south to the East China and Southern markets. However, the current terminal demand in East China and Southern markets is still acceptable, and it will take some time for the contradiction between supply and demand in the construction steel market to accumulate. Therefore, it is expected that domestic construction steel prices may fluctuate due to weakness in the short term.
Hot-rolled coils: On December 2, the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in major cities across the country was 4,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a regional perspective, prices in all regions of the country are rising sharply. Yesterday, the black commodity futures market rose sharply, and the early quotations of the spot market rose sharply. After the rise, market transactions were better. Stimulated by the continuous rise, demand was released. Merchants' quotations continued to rise slightly in the afternoon. At present, there is not much spot inventory. Most of the established targets choose to increase prices. After the disk rose to a new high, the market mentality was significantly boosted, but there was still a slight fear of heights. Almost all the shorts on the disk were trapped. The longs could not easily let the shorts unwind, so the high position was still seen. At present, it seems that the demand is still improving. As long as the data can verify that the demand is not as expected, and the speed of North Material's southward movement is slow, it is difficult to have a sharp drop in the short term, and it may still maintain high fluctuations.
Cold-rolled coils: On December 2, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coils in major cities across the country was 5,128 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Black futures rose sharply yesterday, and the market sentiment was more optimistic. From a fundamental point of view, as inventories continue to decline, the current market circulation resources are limited, some steel mills are out of stock, and the downstream manufacturing industry is still performing well. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic cold-rolled prices will run strongly today.
Medium and heavy plates: On December 2, the average price of 20mm common plates in major cities across the country was 4,071 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of the market, due to the sharp rise in futures, the quotations on the mid-board in many places generally rose yesterday. Coupled with the rapid launch of price signals by steel mills, market quotations have risen and the bargaining space has decreased. However, due to the high local resources in some regions, the continued increase will cause foreign materials to enter, making local resources more difficult to digest. In addition, the overall transaction performance in the recent market has not been tepid, and the low market inventory is mainly due to steel mills. Due to the influence of other factors, merchants in the market outlook are more cautious in operation and still focus on shipments. On the whole, it is expected that today's plate prices may remain stable and wait-and-see.
Imported ore: On December 2, the imported iron ore market fluctuated upward, and trading increased. Yesterday, Qingdao Port 61.5% Australian PB fines reported 904 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; 62.5% PB lump ore reported 965 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Coke: On December 2, the domestic coke market was on the strong side. Most steel mills have not yet accepted the eighth round of increases, and the market mentality is relatively optimistic. On the supply side, the recent coking capacity withdrawal plan in many places is strictly advancing. Coking has started actively and orders have been shipped well. On the demand side, steel mills have started blast furnaces at a high level and demand for coke is strong. Some steel mills have made a little progress in replenishment due to tight coke supply. It was slow. Overall, the progress of coking capacity reduction has accelerated, the release of new capacity has been slow, and the tight coke supply situation has not changed significantly. It is expected that the coke market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.
Scrap steel: On December 2, the scrap steel market was consolidating and the price-adjusted steel mill owners steadily adjusted their prices. The market mentality was average, and the scrap prices of mainstream steel mills remained stable. Specific to the market, on the 2nd, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,542 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Last week, scrap stocks continued to increase. The average daily arrivals of scrap decreased sharply, but the average daily arrivals were still higher than the average daily consumption. With the advent of cold air, steel mills may expect to restock in advance to support scrap prices. We need to look at the trend of finished products, scrap steel prices are difficult to get out of the independent market, and follow the trend of finished products. It is expected that the scrap market trend may diverge in the short term.